Titelaufnahme

Titel
Weather, the forgotten factor in business cycle analyses / Roland Döhrn and Philipp an de Meulen
VerfasserDöhrn, Roland ; Meulen, Philipp an de
ErschienenBochum [u.a.] : RWI, 2015
Umfang26 S. : graph. Darst.
SerieRuhr economic papers ; 539
SchlagwörterDeutschland / Wirtschaftsentwicklung / Prognose / Wetter / Online-Publikation
URNurn:nbn:de:hbz:6:2-45799 
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Weather, the forgotten factor in business cycle analyses [0.38 mb]
Zusammenfassung

In periods of unusual weather, forecasters face a problem of interpreting economic data: Which part goes back to the underlying economic trend and which part arises from a special weather effect? In this paper, we discuss ways to disentangle weather-related from business cycle-related influences on economic indicators. We find a significant influence of weather variables at least on a number of monthly indicators. Controlling for weather effects within these indicators should thus create opportunities to increase the accuracy of indicator-based forecasts. Focusing on quarterly GDP growth in Germany, we find that the accuracy of the RWI short term forecasting model improves but advances are small and not significant.

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