Crowdsourcing of economic forecast : combination of forecasts using Bayesian model averaging / Dongkoo Kim ...
BeteiligteKim, Dongkoo In der Gemeinsamen Normdatei der DNB nachschlagen
ErschienenBochum [u.a.] : RWI, 2015
Umfang28 S. : graph. Darst.
SerieRuhr economic papers ; 546
SchlagwörterWirtschaft In Wikipedia suchen nach Wirtschaft / Prognose In Wikipedia suchen nach Prognose / Bayes-Entscheidungstheorie In Wikipedia suchen nach Bayes-Entscheidungstheorie / Online-Publikation In Wikipedia suchen nach Online-Publikation
URNurn:nbn:de:hbz:6:2-47795 Persistent Identifier (URN)
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Crowdsourcing of economic forecast [0.3 mb]

Economic forecasts are quite essential in our daily lives, which is why many research institutions periodically make and publish forecasts of main economic indicators. We ask (1) whether we can consistently have a better prediction when we combine multiple forecasts of the same variable and (2) if we can, what will be the optimal method of combination. We linearly combine multiple linear combinations of existing forecasts to form a new forecast ("combination of combinations"), and the weights are given by Bayesian model averaging. In the case of forecasts on Germanys real GDP growth rate, this new forecast dominates any single forecast in terms of root-mean-square prediction errors.