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Titel
Oil price shocks and GDP growth : do energy shares amplify causal effects? / Philip Bergmann
VerfasserBergmann, Philip
ErschienenBielefeld, Germany : Universität Bielefeld, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, December 2017
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Elektronische Ressource
Umfang1 Online-Ressource (51 Seiten) : Diagramme
SerieWorking papers in economics and management ; No. 10-2017
URNurn:nbn:de:hbz:6:2-127942 
DOI10.4119/unibi/2916854 
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Oil price shocks and GDP growth [0.66 mb]
Zusammenfassung

The paper estimates the e ect of oil price uctuations on GDP growth, using linear and nonlinear VAR models with data from 12 countries. It reports strong signi cance for the existence of non-linear moderator e ects caused by a decline in the oil-to-energy share, which weakens the causal e ect of oil prices on economic growth. A consideration of the relationship of oil prices and GDP over 44 years con rms the exclusion of symmetry of previous studies. Moreover, the paper indicates that the e ect of negative oil price movements is causal for more countries than has been suggested so far.

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