The paper estimates the e ect of oil price uctuations on GDP growth, using linear and nonlinear VAR models with data from 12 countries. It reports strong signi cance for the existence of non-linear moderator e ects caused by a decline in the oil-to-energy share, which weakens the causal e ect of oil prices on economic growth. A consideration of the relationship of oil prices and GDP over 44 years con rms the exclusion of symmetry of previous studies. Moreover, the paper indicates that the e ect of negative oil price movements is causal for more countries than has been suggested so far.
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