Titelaufnahme

Titel
Testing for structural breaks in correlation: Does it improve value-at-risk forecasting? / Tobias Berens, Gregor N. F. Weiß, Dominik Wied
VerfasserBerens, Tobias ; Weiß, Gregor ; Wied, Dominik
Erschienen[Dortmund] : SFB 823, 2013
Ausgabe
Elektronische Ressource
Umfang1 Online-Ressource (31 Seiten) : Diagramme
SerieDiscussion paper ; Nr. 21 (2013)
SchlagwörterValue at Risk / Prognose / GARCH-Prozess / Portfoliomanagement / Strukturbruch
URNurn:nbn:de:hbz:6:2-1302776 
DOI10.17877/DE290R-5396 
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Testing for structural breaks in correlation: Does it improve value-at-risk forecasting? [0.48 mb]
Zusammenfassung

In this paper, we compare the Constant Conditional Correlation (CCC) model to its dynamic counterpart, the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) model with respect to its accuracy for forecasting the Value-at-Risk of financial portfolios. Additionally, we modify these benchmark models by combining them with a pairwise test for constant correlations, a test for a constant correlation matrix, and a test for a constant covariance matrix. In an empirical horse race of these models based on five- and ten-dimensional portfolios, our study shows that the plain CCC- and DCC-GARCH models are outperformed in several settings by the approaches modified by tests for structural breaks in asset correlations and covariances.

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